UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Austin, USA
18 Feb 2018
Welterweight
VS
98%
Neal
2%
Camozzi
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Neal
Neal is a strong favourite at 98% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 55 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Neal has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 48 points.
Neal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Neal's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Camozzi has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Neal
Camozzi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
+78"
35
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Neal
Camozzi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
1.2
51.7
Performance Avg
0.0
48
Quality of Victory
0
72
Momentum Score
0
Neal
Camozzi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
0.8
55%
Strike Accuracy
24%
7.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
1
Body
2
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Neal
Camozzi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Neal
Camozzi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
44
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Neal
Camozzi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
Neal
Camozzi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Neal
Camozzi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
NealCamozzi
Strike Zones
Neal
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedCamozzi
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Neal targets the head (79% of attacks) — Camozzi absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Camozzi targets the head (43% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Neal
RND
Camozzi
0/0R00/0
Neal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Camozzi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.4WinLossTrend
Neal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 6.1Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Camozzi · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Geoff NealRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
L · KO · R3
Chad LapriseRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker · 2017-07
L · KO · R2
Randy BrownRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · 2016-12