UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
Monterrey, Mexico
21 Nov 2015
Bantamweight
VS
72%
Perez
28%
Jorgensen
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Perez
Perez is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Perez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Perez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jorgensen has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Perez
Jorgensen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
67"+
Reach
66"
36+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Perez
Jorgensen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.4
14.1
56.3
Performance Avg
37.9
49
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
54
Perez
Jorgensen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.5
40%
Strike Accuracy
38%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
1
3
Body
0
10
Leg
0
RangeRange
23Distance1
1Clinch0
6Ground0
Perez
Jorgensen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Perez
Jorgensen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
14
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/32 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Perez
Jorgensen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
54
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Perez
Jorgensen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Perez
Jorgensen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
PerezJorgensen
Strike Zones
Perez
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedJorgensen
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Perez targets the head (57% of attacks) — Jorgensen absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Jorgensen targets the head (100% of attacks) — Perez absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Perez
RND
Jorgensen
0/0R00/0
Perez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Jorgensen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Perez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · 2022-02
W · Sub · R2
Johnny EduardoRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · KO · R1
Song YadongRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
Jorgensen · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alejandro PerezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · 2015-11
L · Dec · R3
Manvel GamburyanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
L · Sub · R1
Wilson ReisRating 1.5Submission
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06
L · Sub · R1
Jussier FormigaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · 2014-03