UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 Oct 2025
Flyweight
VS
88%
Rocha
12%
Nicoll
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Lucas
Lucas Rocha
"Fenomeno"
18 – 2
5'3"64" reachOrthodox25 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 38
Stewart
Stewart Nicoll
"Kakamora"
8 – 3
Well-Rounded3-fight slide30 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'5"
CFR 5

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rocha

Rocha is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rocha has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Rocha has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nicoll has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rocha
Nicoll
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'5"
64"
Reach
+65"
25+
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rocha
Nicoll
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.9
5.1
35.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
46
Momentum Score
0
Rocha
Nicoll
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.0
1.5
59%
Strike Accuracy
37%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
44
Head
10
14
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
55Distance10
5Clinch0
0Ground0
Rocha
Nicoll
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rocha
Nicoll
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/20 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Rocha
Nicoll
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Rocha
Nicoll
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rocha
Nicoll
Striking1.0 / 0.0Volume9.0 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.5 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Rocha
Strike Zones
Nicoll
Rocha
Attacking
44HEAD14BODY2LEGS60 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Nicoll
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
44HEAD14BODY2LEGS60 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rocha targets the head (73% of attacks) — Nicoll absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Nicoll targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rocha absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rocha
RND
Nicoll
0/0R00/0

Rocha · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0103.6L4.5W2024-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Nicoll · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0102.4L5.6L4.1L2024-082025-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Rocha · Last 2

W · Dec · R3
Stewart NicollRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Clayton CarpenterRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10

Nicoll · Last 3

L · KO · R2
Alessandro CostaRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Lucas RochaRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R1
Jesus AguilarRating 2.4
Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

News & Media

Lucas Rocha · Stewart Nicoll
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