UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic
Las Vegas, USA
14 May 2022
Bantamweight
VS
66%
Grant
34%
Smolka
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:49
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Grant
Grant holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Smolka has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Grant's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smolka has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Grant
Smolka
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
69"+
Reach
68"
40
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Grant
Smolka
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.7
26.6
44.2
Performance Avg
46.5
36
Quality of Victory
46
85
Momentum Score
60
Grant
Smolka
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
1
1
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance1
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Grant
Smolka
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Grant
Smolka
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
12
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/26 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Grant
Smolka
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
60
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Grant
Smolka
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
75%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Grant
Smolka
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
GrantSmolka
Strike Zones
Grant
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedSmolka
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Grant targets the head (56% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Smolka targets the head (100% of attacks) — Grant absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Grant
RND
Smolka
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Grant · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Smolka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Grant · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Adrian Luna MartinettiRating 4.5Decision
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L · KO · R3
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