UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Chicago, USA
23 Jul 2016
Featherweight
VS
44%
Alers
56%
Knight
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Knight
This is a genuine toss-up — Alers at 44% vs Knight at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Knight has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Knight throws more volume but Alers connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Alers
Knight
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
39
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alers
Knight
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.3
14.1
28.3
Performance Avg
40.2
25
Quality of Victory
37
40
Momentum Score
26
Alers
Knight
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
38%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
16
0
Body
3
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
8Distance16
0Clinch2
2Ground5
Alers
Knight
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alers
Knight
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
70
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/16 fights
Chin rating based on
9/25 fights
Alers
Knight
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Alers
Knight
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alers
Knight
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
AlersKnight
Strike Zones
Alers
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedKnight
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alers targets the head (100% of attacks) — Knight absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Knight targets the head (70% of attacks) — Alers absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alers
RND
Knight
0/0R00/0
Alers · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Knight · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Alers · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Jason KnightRating 5.5Decision
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