UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Featherweight
VS
74%
Caceres
26%
Knight
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:21
Alex
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21 – 15
5'10"73" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
JK
Jason Knight
"The Kid"
20 – 5
Well-Rounded4-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Caceres

Caceres is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Caceres has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Caceres
Knight
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
71"
37
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Caceres
Knight
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
14.1
42.2
Performance Avg
40.2
34
Quality of Victory
37
76
Momentum Score
26
Caceres
Knight
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.2
50%
Strike Accuracy
38%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
13
1
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground9
Caceres
Knight
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Knight
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
9/25 fights
Caceres
Knight
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Caceres
Knight
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Caceres
Knight
Striking1.7 / 3.4Volume6.1 / 4.9Grappling3.5 / 3.2Wrestling2.5 / 2.2Submission2.5 / 2.5Pressure3.8 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Caceres
Strike Zones
Knight
Caceres
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD0BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Knight
Attacking
13HEAD0BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (40% of attacks) — Knight absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Knight targets the head (93% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Caceres
RND
Knight
0/0R00/0

Caceres · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0101.5L2.8L4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.0L5.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W7.1L2.8L4.2W5.5L4.5W2.3L4.5W5.3W5.0W4.5W5.4W6.3L5.2W5.4W6.5L6.6L2011-032014-072017-112022-032024-05
WinLossTrend

Knight · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5L4.5W5.4W5.5W5.5W1.5L5.7L5.6L5.5L2015-122017-012017-122018-11
WinLossTrend

Caceres · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03

Knight · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jordan RinaldiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Makwan AmirkhaniRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · KO · R1
Ricardo LamasRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
W · KO · R3
Chas SkellyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05

News & Media

Alex Caceres · Jason Knight
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