UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2
Beijing, China
24 Nov 2018
Bantamweight
VS
88%
Liu
12%
Day
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Liu
Liu is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Liu has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Day has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Day has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Liu
Day
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
72"
Reach
+73"
33+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Liu
Day
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.5
1.7
35.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
39
Momentum Score
0
Liu
Day
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
35%
Strike Accuracy
54%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
16
1
Body
7
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance17
0Clinch0
3Ground7
Liu
Day
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Liu
Day
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
62
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Liu
Day
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Liu
Day
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Liu
Day
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
LiuDay
Strike Zones
Liu
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedDay
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Liu targets the head (83% of attacks) — Day absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Day targets the head (67% of attacks) — Liu absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Liu
RND
Day
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Liu · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Day · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Liu · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-12
L · KO · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
Martin DayRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · 2018-11
W · Dec · R3
Damian StasiakRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
Day · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Timur ValievRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
L · Sub · R1
Anderson Dos SantosRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Pingyuan LiuRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · 2018-11