UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2022
Welterweight
VS
61%
Holland
39%
Oliveira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:38
KH
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29 – 15
6'3"81" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 47
AO
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22 – 12
Well-Rounded4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 30

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Holland

Holland holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Oliveira has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Holland throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Holland's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Holland
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
81"+
Reach
76"
33+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holland
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.0
29.9
49.3
Performance Avg
46.5
44
Quality of Victory
43
51
Momentum Score
100
Holland
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
54%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
0
0
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
15Ground0
Holland
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
2.7
6
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holland
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/44 fights
Chin rating based on
22/34 fights
Holland
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
100
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Holland
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
64%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
6
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holland
Oliveira
Striking4.3 / 4.7Volume3.6 / 4.0Grappling3.8 / 3.0Wrestling2.6 / 2.1Submission3.8 / 2.7Pressure6.5 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Holland
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Holland
Attacking
17HEAD0BODY2LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Oliveira
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD0BODY2LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holland targets the head (89% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the body (50% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holland
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Holland · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5W5.6W4.5W4.1L6.4W6.7W4.5W5.0W5.0W5.8L6.3L5.2W5.3W3.4L3.9L6.0W5.8W7.0L6.3L6.0W2.9L2.5L5.6W6.7W6.4L7.3L5.4W2018-082020-092022-092024-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.2L5.0W4.5W5.5W1.5L4.5W5.5W5.3W5.2W4.0L5.2W5.0W3.8L5.5L5.8L5.1W4.5W3.6L2.4L6.2L3.4L2015-032016-102018-122021-042022-03
WinLossTrend

Holland · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

Oliveira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4
Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

News & Media

Kevin Holland · Alex Oliveira
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