The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
Las Vegas, USA
12 Jul 2015
Welterweight
VS
27%
Graves
73%
Luque
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
Luque is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Luque has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Luque has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Luque has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Graves
Luque
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+75"
35
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Graves
Luque
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.3
64.9
62.3
Performance Avg
57.2
37
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
100
Graves
Luque
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.2
2.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
53%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
11
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch2
1Ground9
Graves
Luque
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Graves
Luque
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
34
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/6 fights
Chin rating based on
25/36 fights
Graves
Luque
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Graves
Luque
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
82%
0
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
7
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Graves
Luque
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.1
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
GravesLuque
Strike Zones
Graves
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedLuque
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Graves targets the head (67% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Luque targets the body (85% of attacks) — Graves absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Graves
RND
Luque
0/0R00/0
Graves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Graves · Last 3
Upcoming
Bojan VelickovicDecision
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
W · Sub · R2
Randy BrownRating 6.1Submission
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboRating 5.4Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03