Demian Maia vs Belal Muhammad — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2

Glendale, USA

12 Jun 2021

Welterweight

27%

Maia

73%

Muhammad

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Demian Maia

28 – 11

6'1"72" reachSouthpaw48 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 21

Belal Muhammad

"Remember the Name"

24 – 5

Well-Rounded3-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"

CFR 56

★ Official Result

Belal MuhammadwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Demian Maia · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Muhammad

→

Actual result

Muhammad wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Muhammad is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Muhammad has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MaiaMuhammad

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Maia

Muhammad

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'1"+

Height

5'11"

72"

Reach

72"

Age

+38

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Maia

Muhammad

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

20.6

55.8

50.8

Performance Avg

47.1

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

100

Maia

Muhammad

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.8

/ 10

2.8

/ 10

5.8

Style: Pressure

3.5

5.0

Style: Volume

7.8

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

11Distance20

1Clinch1

0Ground0

Maia

Muhammad

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.1

/ 10

2.5

/ 10

3.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.7

5.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.7

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Maia

Muhammad

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

1 fight ago

Last KO loss

19 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

33/39 fights

Chin rating based on

22/29 fights

Maia

Muhammad

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

Last 5

L · Dec · R5

L · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R5

W · Dec · R5

Maia

Muhammad

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

55%

20%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maia

Muhammad

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.8

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

2.8

5.1

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.5

3.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.7

5.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.7

5.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.5

5.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

7.8

Maia

Strike Zones

Muhammad

Maia

Attacking

12 landed

Absorbing

21 absorbed

Muhammad

Attacking

21 landed

Absorbing

12 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Maia targets the head (100% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 100% of strikes there

🎯Muhammad targets the head (90% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maia

RND

Muhammad

0/0R00/0

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Belal Muhammad

Decision

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06

L · KO · R1

Gilbert Burns

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03

W · Sub · R3

Ben Askren

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10

W · Dec · R3

Anthony Rocco Martin

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06

W · Sub · R1

Lyman Good

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02

Muhammad · Last 5

L · Dec · R5

Gabriel Bonfim

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06

L · Dec · R3

Ian Machado Garry

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11

L · Dec · R5

Jack Della Maddalena

Decision

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05

W · Dec · R5

Leon Edwards

Decision

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

W · Dec · R5

Gilbert Burns

Decision

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

News & Media

Demian Maia · Belal Muhammad

← Back to fights