UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
London, United Kingdom
21 Mar 2026
Light Heavyweight
VS
85%
Baraniewski
15%
Lane
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:28
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Baraniewski
Baraniewski is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 68 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Baraniewski has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Baraniewski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lane has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Baraniewski
Lane
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'6"
73"
Reach
+80"
27+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Baraniewski
Lane
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
82.8
14.4
76.0
Performance Avg
21.7
60
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
0
Baraniewski
Lane
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.9
71%
Strike Accuracy
49%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Baraniewski
Lane
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Baraniewski
Lane
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/8 fights
Chin rating based on
7/21 fights
Baraniewski
Lane
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Baraniewski
Lane
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Baraniewski
Lane
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
10.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.5
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
BaraniewskiLane
Strike Zones
Baraniewski
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedLane
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Baraniewski targets the head (90% of attacks) — Lane absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Baraniewski
RND
Lane
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Baraniewski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Lane · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Baraniewski · Last 3
Upcoming
Billy ElekanaUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Austen LaneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Ibo AslanRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
Lane · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Iwo BaraniewskiRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Mario PintoRating 4.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Robelis DespaigneRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Jhonata DinizRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04