UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
Tampa, USA
16 Apr 2016
Featherweight
VS
78%
Swanson
22%
Dias
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Swanson
Swanson is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Swanson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Swanson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Swanson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Swanson
Dias
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
69"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Swanson
Dias
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
12.7
48.8
Performance Avg
30.0
40
Quality of Victory
25
56
Momentum Score
50
Swanson
Dias
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
8 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
11
8
Body
2
6
Leg
4
RangeRange
14Distance17
1Clinch0
20Ground0
Swanson
Dias
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Swanson
Dias
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
90
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/45 fights
Chin rating based on
8/29 fights
Swanson
Dias
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
50
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Swanson
Dias
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
8
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Swanson
Dias
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
SwansonDias
Strike Zones
Swanson
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedDias
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Swanson targets the head (60% of attacks) — Dias absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Dias targets the head (65% of attacks) — Swanson absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Swanson
RND
Dias
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Swanson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Dias · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Swanson · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Nate LandwehrRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Jonathan MartinezRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
Dias · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 6Decision
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Levan MakashviliRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12