UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer
Omaha, USA
17 Sept 2008
Middleweight
VS
55%
Gouveia
45%
Jensen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:04
WG
Wilson Gouveia
14 – 8
6'1"76" reachOrthodox47 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 21
RJ
Ryan Jensen
21 – 8
Submission Hunter2-fight slide48 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'1"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gouveia

This is a genuine toss-up — Gouveia at 55% vs Jensen at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Gouveia throws more volume but Jensen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Gouveia's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jensen has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gouveia
Jensen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
76"
Reach
76"
47+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gouveia
Jensen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.0
17.1
56.2
Performance Avg
42.4
54
Quality of Victory
54
72
Momentum Score
59
Gouveia
Jensen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.1
42%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch1
0Ground2
Gouveia
Jensen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gouveia
Jensen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/22 fights
Chin rating based on
8/29 fights
Gouveia
Jensen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Gouveia
Jensen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gouveia
Jensen
Striking4.5 / 0.5Volume1.2 / 0.5Grappling5.3 / 8.0Wrestling3.7 / 5.6Submission6.7 / 10.0Pressure8.8 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Gouveia
Strike Zones
Jensen
Gouveia
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Jensen
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gouveia targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jensen absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Jensen targets the head (83% of attacks) — Gouveia absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gouveia
RND
Jensen
0/0R00/0

Gouveia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L5.0W5.2W5.0W5.2W2.8L5.2W5.0W4.0L1.5L2006-062007-052008-092009-12
WinLossTrend

Jensen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.9
0101.5L1.5L2.8L5.0W1.5L5.0W4.2L1.5L2007-082008-092010-012010-102011-04
WinLossTrend

Gouveia · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alan BelcherRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
L · KO · R3
Nate MarquardtRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson · 2009-02
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12
W · Sub · R2
Ryan JensenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer · 2008-09
L · KO · R2
Goran ReljicRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 84: Ill Will · 2008-05

Jensen · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
L · Sub · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.2
Submission
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10
W · Sub · R1
Jesse ForbesRating 5
Submission
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Mark MunozRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva · 2010-01
W · Sub · R1
Steve SteinbeissRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard · 2009-09

News & Media

Wilson Gouveia · Ryan Jensen
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