★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Women's Strawweight
VS
46%
Jedrzejczyk
54%
Kowalkiewicz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
JJ
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
16 – 5
5'6"65" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 28
Karolina
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'3"
CFR 33

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kowalkiewicz

This is a genuine toss-up — Jedrzejczyk at 46% vs Kowalkiewicz at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Jedrzejczyk has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Striking split: Kowalkiewicz throws more volume but Jedrzejczyk connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Jedrzejczyk's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kowalkiewicz has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'3"
65"+
Reach
64"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.8
32.7
52.9
Performance Avg
35.6
44
Quality of Victory
28
58
Momentum Score
40
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
5
6
Body
0
15
Leg
0
RangeRange
33Distance5
10Clinch0
0Ground0
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.9
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
20
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
11%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Striking3.3 / 0.9Volume7.7 / 8.1Grappling1.9 / 3.0Wrestling1.3 / 2.1Submission0.0 / 1.1Pressure3.4 / 2.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
3.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.2
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
Jedrzejczyk
Strike Zones
Kowalkiewicz
Jedrzejczyk
Attacking
22HEAD6BODY15LEGS43 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD6BODY15LEGS43 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jedrzejczyk targets the head (51% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jedrzejczyk absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jedrzejczyk
RND
Kowalkiewicz
0/0R00/0

Jedrzejczyk · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.4W5.3W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.3W2.9L6.9L5.2W6.9L4.5W7.3L4.6L2014-072015-112017-112019-102022-06
WinLossTrend

Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.9W5.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W2.3L5.5L6.7L6.5L1.6L5.2W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.4L6.8L4.6L2015-122017-102020-022023-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Jedrzejczyk · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · 2022-06
L · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliRating 7.3
Decision
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
W · Dec · R5
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07

Kowalkiewicz · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

News & Media

Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Karolina Kowalkiewicz
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