METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Women's Strawweight
VS
46%
Jedrzejczyk
54%
Kowalkiewicz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Joanna JedrzejczykwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz · UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Kowalkiewicz
→
Actual result
Jedrzejczyk wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Jedrzejczyk at 46% vs Kowalkiewicz at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Jedrzejczyk has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Jedrzejczyk's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kowalkiewicz has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JedrzejczykKowalkiewicz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'3"
65"+
Reach
64"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.8
32.7
52.9
Performance Avg
35.6
44
Quality of Victory
28
58
Momentum Score
40
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
3.4
Style: Pressure
2.2
7.7
Style: Volume
8.1
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
5
6
Body
0
15
Leg
0
RangeRange
33Distance5
10Clinch0
0Ground0
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
20
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
11%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jedrzejczyk
Kowalkiewicz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
3.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.2
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
JedrzejczykKowalkiewicz
Strike Zones
Jedrzejczyk
Attacking
43 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedKowalkiewicz
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
43 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jedrzejczyk targets the head (51% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jedrzejczyk absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jedrzejczyk
RND
Kowalkiewicz
0/0R00/0
Jedrzejczyk · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Zhang WeiliKO/TKO
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · 2022-06
L · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliDecision
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
W · Dec · R5
Michelle Waterson-GomezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoDecision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
Kowalkiewicz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoDecision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05