UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Doha, Qatar
22 Nov 2025
Flyweight
VS
51%
Perez
49%
Almabayev
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 0:22
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Perez
This is a genuine toss-up — Perez at 51% vs Almabayev at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Perez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Perez throws more volume but Almabayev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Perez's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Perez
Almabayev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'4"
65"
Reach
65"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Perez
Almabayev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.7
57.9
52.7
Performance Avg
53.7
50
Quality of Victory
32
100
Momentum Score
83
Perez
Almabayev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
0.5
49%
Strike Accuracy
59%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Perez
Almabayev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Perez
Almabayev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/36 fights
Chin rating based on
8/26 fights
Perez
Almabayev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
83
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Perez
Almabayev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Perez
Almabayev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.7
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
PerezAlmabayev
Strike Zones
Perez
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedAlmabayev
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Perez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Almabayev absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Almabayev targets the head (100% of attacks) — Perez absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Perez
RND
Almabayev
0/0R00/0
Perez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Almabayev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Perez · Last 5
Upcoming
SumudaerjiUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Charles JohnsonRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · Sub · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Matheus NicolauRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
Almabayev · Last 5
Upcoming
Charles JohnsonUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Sub · R3
Alex PerezRating 6.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Manel KapeRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Matheus NicolauRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10