Tarec Saffiedine vs Jake Ellenberger — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader

Newark, USA

30 Jan 2016

Welterweight

39%

Saffiedine

61%

Ellenberger

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Tarec Saffiedine

"Sponge"

16 – 7

5'10"70" reachSwitch40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 10

Jake Ellenberger

"The Juggernaut"

31 – 15

Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"

CFR 16

★ Official Result

Tarec SaffiedinewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Jake Ellenberger · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Ellenberger

→

Actual result

Saffiedine wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Ellenberger holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Saffiedine has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Ellenberger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Risk flags

Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

SaffiedineEllenberger

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Saffiedine

Ellenberger

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'9"

70"

Reach

+71"

40+

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

Saffiedine

Ellenberger

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

10.1

15.7

28.3

Performance Avg

45.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Saffiedine

Ellenberger

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.7

/ 10

6.0

/ 10

1.0

Style: Pressure

5.6

8.7

Style: Volume

3.4

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

17Distance4

3Clinch5

0Ground0

Saffiedine

Ellenberger

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.4

/ 10

1.5

/ 10

1.7

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.1

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

1.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Saffiedine

Ellenberger

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

4 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R3.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.6 stoppage

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

6/23 fights

Chin rating based on

21/46 fights

Saffiedine

Ellenberger

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

4-fight 📉 slide

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R3

Last 5

L · KO · R1

L · KO · R2

L · KO · R1

W · KO · R1

Saffiedine

Ellenberger

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

60%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Saffiedine

Ellenberger

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

0.7

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.0

2.4

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.5

1.7

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.1

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.6

8.7

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.4

Saffiedine

Strike Zones

Ellenberger

Saffiedine

Attacking

20 landed

Absorbing

9 absorbed

Ellenberger

Attacking

9 landed

Absorbing

20 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Saffiedine targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 50% of strikes there

🎯Ellenberger targets the head (78% of attacks) — Saffiedine absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Saffiedine

RND

Ellenberger

0/0R00/0

Saffiedine · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Rafael Dos Anjos

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06

L · Dec · R3

Dong Hyun Kim

Decision

UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12

L · Dec · R3

Rick Story

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05

W · Dec · R3

Jake Ellenberger

Decision

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01

L · KO · R3

Rory MacDonald

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Bryan Barberena

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08

L · KO · R1

Ben Saunders

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06

L · KO · R2

Mike Perry

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04

L · KO · R1

Jorge Masvidal

KO/TKO

The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12

W · KO · R1

Matt Brown

KO/TKO

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

News & Media

Tarec Saffiedine · Jake Ellenberger

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