UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Welterweight
VS
39%
Saffiedine
61%
Ellenberger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TS
Tarec Saffiedine
"Sponge"
16 – 7
5'10"70" reachSwitch39 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 10
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ellenberger

Ellenberger holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Saffiedine has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Ellenberger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Striking split: Ellenberger throws more volume but Saffiedine connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Saffiedine
Ellenberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
39+
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Saffiedine
Ellenberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.1
15.7
28.3
Performance Avg
45.7
25
Quality of Victory
45
25
Momentum Score
56
Saffiedine
Ellenberger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
42%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
7
4
Body
2
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance4
3Clinch5
0Ground0
Saffiedine
Ellenberger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Saffiedine
Ellenberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
0
Moderate
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/23 fights
Chin rating based on
21/46 fights
Saffiedine
Ellenberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
56
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Saffiedine
Ellenberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Saffiedine
Ellenberger
Striking0.7 / 6.0Volume8.7 / 3.4Grappling2.4 / 1.5Wrestling1.7 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 1.0Pressure1.0 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Saffiedine
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
Saffiedine
Attacking
10HEAD4BODY6LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Ellenberger
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD4BODY6LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Saffiedine targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (78% of attacks) — Saffiedine absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Saffiedine
RND
Ellenberger
0/0R00/0

Saffiedine · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W2.8L4.5W5.5L5.5L5.7L2014-012014-102016-012016-052016-122017-06
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

Saffiedine · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Dong Hyun KimRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Rick StoryRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Jake EllenbergerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
L · KO · R3
Rory MacDonaldRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

News & Media

Tarec Saffiedine · Jake Ellenberger
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