UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Catch Weight
VS
64%
Tarin
36%
Kareckaite
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RT
Regina Tarin
"Kill Bill"
8 – 0
5'7"66" reachSouthpaw21 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Ernesta
Ernesta Kareckaite
"Heavy-Handed"
6 – 2
Well-Rounded27 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 34

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tarin

Tarin holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Kareckaite has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Tarin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Tarin
Kareckaite
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
66"
Reach
+71"
21+
Age
27
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tarin
Kareckaite
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.8
33.8
55.0
Performance Avg
28.3
25
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
40
Tarin
Kareckaite
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.1
2.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
40%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
31
15
Body
6
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
30Distance29
16Clinch11
0Ground0
Tarin
Kareckaite
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tarin
Kareckaite
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/8 fights
Chin rating based on
3/8 fights
Tarin
Kareckaite
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
40
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Tarin
Kareckaite
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tarin
Kareckaite
Striking2.0 / 0.7Volume10.0 / 8.7Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.0 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
10.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Tarin
Strike Zones
Kareckaite
Tarin
Attacking
30HEAD15BODY1LEGS46 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD6BODY3LEGS40 absorbed
Kareckaite
Attacking
31HEAD6BODY3LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD15BODY1LEGS46 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tarin targets the head (65% of attacks) — Kareckaite absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Kareckaite targets the head (78% of attacks) — Tarin absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tarin
RND
Kareckaite
0/0R00/0

Kareckaite · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0106.2L5.1W6.8L2024-052025-012026-02
WinLossTrend

Tarin · Last 1

W · Dec · R3
Ernesta KareckaiteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02

Kareckaite · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Regina TarinRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Nicolle CaliariRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Dione BarbosaRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Regina Tarin · Ernesta Kareckaite
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