The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
Las Vegas, USA
12 Jul 2015
Middleweight
VS
61%
Miller
39%
Smith
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miller
Miller holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Smith has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Miller has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Miller's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Miller
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
+75"
44+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Miller
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.9
10.9
43.7
Performance Avg
31.7
42
Quality of Victory
25
51
Momentum Score
45
Miller
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.1
37%
Strike Accuracy
53%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
15
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch1
0Ground15
Miller
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
26
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
12/25 fights
Miller
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Miller
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miller
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
MillerSmith
Strike Zones
Miller
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedSmith
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (100% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (83% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miller
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
Miller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Miller · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
L · KO · R1
Jordan MeinRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
W · Sub · R3
Ricardo FunchRating 5.5Submission
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
L · Dec · R3
Rousimar PalharesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Nate MarquardtRating 5.5Decision
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Andrew SanchezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · 2016-12