UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
Las Vegas, USA
7 Sept 2024
Featherweight
VS
66%
Garcia
34%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:59
Steve
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
19 – 5
6'0"75" reachSouthpaw34 yrs7-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 73
Kyle
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17 – 7
Well-Rounded35 yrsSwitch71" reach5'11"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Garcia

Garcia holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Nelson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Garcia has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Garcia has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Garcia
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
71"
34+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Garcia
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
72.5
36.8
65.0
Performance Avg
41.6
55
Quality of Victory
39
95
Momentum Score
36
Garcia
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
1.0
53%
Strike Accuracy
47%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
7 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
0
1
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
20Ground0
Garcia
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garcia
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/24 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Garcia
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
36
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Garcia
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
40%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Garcia
Nelson
Striking10.0 / 4.9Volume2.6 / 5.7Grappling0.3 / 1.4Wrestling0.2 / 1.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.5 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Garcia
Strike Zones
Nelson
Garcia
Attacking
20HEAD1BODY1LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD1BODY1LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (91% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Garcia
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Garcia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5L5.2W1.8L5.8W5.5W6.5W5.2W5.1W5.0W5.8W2020-022022-102024-072025-11
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0103.8L4.0L5.0W5.2L6.2L4.5W5.8W5.2W3.4L4.7W3.0L2018-122020-092023-092025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Garcia · Last 5

Upcoming
Diego Lopes
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
David OnamaRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
SeungWoo ChoiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07

Nelson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

News & Media

Steve Garcia · Kyle Nelson
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