METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
Las Vegas, USA
7 Sept 2024
Featherweight
VS
65%
Garcia
35%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:59
★ Official Result
Steve GarciawinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:59
def. Kyle Nelson · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Garcia
→
Actual result
Garcia wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Garcia holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Nelson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garcia has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Garcia's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GarciaNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Garcia
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
71"
34+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Garcia
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.1
36.8
62.1
Performance Avg
41.6
55
Quality of Victory
39
95
Momentum Score
36
Garcia
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
8.3
Style: Pressure
4.2
2.5
Style: Volume
5.7
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
0
1
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
20Ground0
Garcia
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.3
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Garcia
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/24 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Garcia
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
36
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Garcia
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
40%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garcia
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
GarciaNelson
Strike Zones
Garcia
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedNelson
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (91% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garcia
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Garcia · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Diego LopesKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
David OnamaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
SeungWoo ChoiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaDecision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaDecision
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09