UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard
Oklahoma City, USA
16 Sept 2009
Lightweight
VS
74%
Stephens
26%
Buchholz
Win Probability
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
5'9"71" reachOrthodox40 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
JB
Justin Buchholz
15 – 10
Submission Hunter3-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stephens

Stephens is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Stephens has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stephens
Buchholz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+73"
40+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Buchholz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
15.7
41.1
Performance Avg
37.7
40
Quality of Victory
50
76
Momentum Score
33
Stephens
Buchholz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
42%
Strike Accuracy
28%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
5
1
Body
1
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
13Distance9
9Clinch0
6Ground0
Stephens
Buchholz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Buchholz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
72
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
5/25 fights
Stephens
Buchholz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
33
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Stephens
Buchholz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stephens
Buchholz
Striking5.5 / 0.4Volume4.6 / 0.4Grappling1.1 / 8.0Wrestling0.8 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure4.5 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
Stephens
Strike Zones
Buchholz
Stephens
Attacking
22HEAD1BODY5LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY3LEGS9 absorbed
Buchholz
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY3LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD1BODY5LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (79% of attacks) — Buchholz absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Buchholz targets the head (56% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stephens
RND
Buchholz
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Buchholz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0101.5L5.2W2.8L4.5L5.5L2008-012008-072009-062009-092010-02
WinLossTrend

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

Buchholz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mac DanzigRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 4.5
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard · 2009-09
L · Sub · R2
Terry EtimRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06
W · Sub · R2
Corey HillRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
L · Sub · R1
Matt WimanRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman · 2008-01

News & Media

Jeremy Stephens · Justin Buchholz
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