METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard
Oklahoma City, USA
16 Sept 2009
Lightweight
VS
74%
Stephens
26%
Buchholz
Win Probability
★ Official Result
Jeremy StephenswinsR1 · 3:23
def. Justin Buchholz · UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Stephens
→
Actual result
Stephens wins
Pre-fight analysis
Stephens is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Stephens has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StephensBuchholz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Stephens
Buchholz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+73"
40+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Buchholz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
15.7
41.1
Performance Avg
37.7
40
Quality of Victory
50
76
Momentum Score
33
Stephens
Buchholz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
1.0
42%
Strike Accuracy
28%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
5
1
Body
1
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
13Distance9
9Clinch0
6Ground0
Stephens
Buchholz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Buchholz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
72
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
5/25 fights
Stephens
Buchholz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
33
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Stephens
Buchholz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stephens
Buchholz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
StephensBuchholz
Strike Zones
Stephens
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedBuchholz
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (79% of attacks) — Buchholz absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Buchholz targets the head (56% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stephens
RND
Buchholz
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Buchholz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
Buchholz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mac DanzigRating 5.5Decision
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 4.5UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard · 2009-09
L · Sub · R2
Terry EtimRating 2.8Submission
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06
W · Sub · R2
Corey HillRating 5.2Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
L · Sub · R1
Matt WimanRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman · 2008-01