UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Glendale, USA
12 Jun 2021
Light Heavyweight
VS
45%
Craig
55%
Hill
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hill
This is a genuine toss-up — Craig at 45% vs Hill at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hill has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Craig's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hill has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Craig
Hill
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
76"
Reach
+79"
38
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Craig
Hill
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
60.4
50.4
Performance Avg
54.2
52
Quality of Victory
50
46
Momentum Score
92
Craig
Hill
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
0
4
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance1
0Clinch0
17Ground0
Craig
Hill
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Craig
Hill
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/27 fights
Chin rating based on
11/16 fights
Craig
Hill
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
92
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
Craig
Hill
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
6
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Craig
Hill
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.9
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
CraigHill
Strike Zones
Craig
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedHill
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Craig targets the head (78% of attacks) — Hill absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Hill targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Craig
RND
Hill
0/0R00/0
Craig · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Hill · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Craig · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3KO/TKO
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Hill · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.4Decision
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L · KO · R3
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L · KO · R1
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W · Dec · R5
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W · KO · R4
Thiago SantosRating 5.4KO/TKO
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