UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jul 2010
Middleweight
VS
69%
Harris
31%
Branch
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:35
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Harris
Harris holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Branch has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Harris has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Harris throws more volume but Branch connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Branch has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Harris
Branch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
77"
Reach
+78"
46
Age
+44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Harris
Branch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.0
11.9
62.0
Performance Avg
38.0
53
Quality of Victory
34
100
Momentum Score
36
Harris
Branch
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.5
29%
Strike Accuracy
38%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch2
1Ground0
Harris
Branch
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Harris
Branch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
10
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/28 fights
Chin rating based on
9/28 fights
Harris
Branch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Harris
Branch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
25%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Harris
Branch
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
1.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
HarrisBranch
Strike Zones
Harris
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedBranch
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Harris targets the head (100% of attacks) — Branch absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Branch targets the body (60% of attacks) — Harris absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Harris
RND
Branch
0/0R00/0
Harris · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Branch · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Harris · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Maiquel FalcaoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
W · KO · R3
David BranchRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · KO · R1
Mario MirandaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi · 2010-03
W · KO · R3
John SalterRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz · 2010-01
Branch · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
W · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
L · KO · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
W · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 4.5Decision
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05