UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Manchester, United Kingdom
27 Jul 2024
Featherweight
VS
49%
Wood
51%
Pineda
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Nathaniel
Nathaniel Wood
"The Last Kingsman"
23 – 6
5'6"69" reachOrthodox33 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Daniel
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
28 – 17
Submission Hunter3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pineda

This is a genuine toss-up — Wood at 49% vs Pineda at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Pineda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Striking split: Wood throws more volume but Pineda connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Pineda has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Wood
Pineda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
69"
Reach
69"
33+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Wood
Pineda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.6
52.9
50.2
Performance Avg
47.4
31
Quality of Victory
53
60
Momentum Score
85
Wood
Pineda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.1
55%
Strike Accuracy
55%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
6
1
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance4
0Clinch1
0Ground2
Wood
Pineda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Wood
Pineda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
44
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/29 fights
Chin rating based on
14/45 fights
Wood
Pineda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
85
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Wood
Pineda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
27%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
4
8
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Wood
Pineda
Striking1.6 / 2.8Volume7.4 / 0.8Grappling3.9 / 6.4Wrestling2.8 / 4.5Submission2.7 / 8.0Pressure4.3 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
Wood
Strike Zones
Pineda
Wood
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY3LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Pineda
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY3LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Wood targets the head (56% of attacks) — Pineda absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Pineda targets the head (86% of attacks) — Wood absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Wood
RND
Pineda
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Wood · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.5W5.2W4.0L5.3W5.5L4.5W5.3W5.2W6.7L5.4W5.7W6.0W4.5W2018-062020-072023-072025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Pineda · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.0W5.5L1.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.6W3.3L5.2W5.7L6.3L6.0L2012-012013-042020-122024-10
WinLossTrend

Wood · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Losene KeitaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Jose DelgadoRating 6
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Morgan CharriereRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Muhammad NaimovRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Pineda · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
Upcoming
Andre Fili
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06

News & Media

Nathaniel Wood · Daniel Pineda
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