UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Middleweight
VS
96%
Gandra
4%
Medina
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:41
Ryan
Ryan Gandra
"Problema"
9 – 1
6'1"74" reachOrthodox31 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 83
Jose
Jose Daniel Medina
"Chicho"
11 – 7
Well-Rounded4-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gandra

Gandra is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 79 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Gandra has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 60 points.

Gandra has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Medina has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gandra
Medina
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
74"
31+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gandra
Medina
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
82.8
3.4
76.0
Performance Avg
0.0
60
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Gandra
Medina
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
5.6
1.6
48%
Strike Accuracy
46%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Gandra
Medina
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Gandra
Medina
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
42
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/10 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
Gandra
Medina
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Gandra
Medina
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gandra
Medina
Striking10.0 / 0.0Volume2.0 / 0.0Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure10.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
10.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Gandra
Strike Zones
Medina
Gandra
Attacking
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Medina
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gandra targets the head (100% of attacks) — Medina absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gandra
RND
Medina
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Medina · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0106.5L3.7L1.9L3.9L2024-082025-032025-092026-02
WinLossTrend

Gandra · Last 1

W · KO · R1
Jose Daniel MedinaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02

Medina · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Ryan GandraRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Sub · R1
Dusko TodorovicRating 1.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Ateba GautierRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Zach ReeseRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08

News & Media

Ryan Gandra · Jose Daniel Medina
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