UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
12 Sept 2020
Welterweight
VS
95%
Barberena
5%
Ivy
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Barberena
Barberena is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barberena has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 42 points.
Barberena has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Barberena's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barberena
Ivy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
+74"
37
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Barberena
Ivy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.3
2.1
43.9
Performance Avg
0.0
42
Quality of Victory
0
76
Momentum Score
0
Barberena
Ivy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.7
0.9
52%
Strike Accuracy
38%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
8
2
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance5
3Clinch2
2Ground5
Barberena
Ivy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barberena
Ivy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/30 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Barberena
Ivy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Barberena
Ivy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barberena
Ivy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BarberenaIvy
Strike Zones
Barberena
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedIvy
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barberena targets the head (88% of attacks) — Ivy absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Ivy targets the head (67% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barberena
RND
Ivy
0/0R00/0
Barberena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Ivy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Barberena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
Ivy · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
L · KO · R1
Christian AguileraRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06