UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
San Diego, USA
15 Jul 2015
Welterweight
VS
49%
Jouban
51%
Dwyer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AJ
Alan Jouban
"Brahma"
17 – 7
6'0"73" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
MD
Matt Dwyer
9 – 4
Knockout Artist2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'4"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dwyer

This is a genuine toss-up — Jouban at 49% vs Dwyer at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Dwyer has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Jouban has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Jouban's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jouban
Dwyer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+76"
44
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Jouban
Dwyer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
18.5
49.7
Performance Avg
46.0
42
Quality of Victory
60
67
Momentum Score
43
Jouban
Dwyer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.8
0.8
51%
Strike Accuracy
28%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
2
5
Body
2
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance3
4Clinch1
4Ground0
Jouban
Dwyer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jouban
Dwyer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/24 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Jouban
Dwyer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
67
43
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Jouban
Dwyer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jouban
Dwyer
Striking6.2 / 10.0Volume5.2 / 0.5Grappling1.2 / 0.0Wrestling0.8 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.3 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Jouban
Strike Zones
Dwyer
Jouban
Attacking
7HEAD5BODY4LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Dwyer
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD5BODY4LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jouban targets the head (44% of attacks) — Dwyer absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Dwyer targets the head (50% of attacks) — Jouban absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jouban
RND
Dwyer
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Jouban · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.7L5.0W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.6W4.5W3.8L2.2L5.2W5.5L5.0W2014-082015-102017-032020-11
WinLossTrend

Dwyer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0101.5L5.0W5.5L6.4L2014-102015-022015-072016-01
WinLossTrend

Jouban · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Jared GoodenRating 5
Decision
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
L · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Gunnar NelsonRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03

Dwyer · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
L · Dec · R3
Alan JoubanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
William MacarioRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · KO · R1
Albert TumenovRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

News & Media

Alan Jouban · Matt Dwyer
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