METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Women's Flyweight
VS
61%
Barbosa
39%
Kareckaite
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Dione BarbosawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Ernesta Kareckaite · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Barbosa
→
Actual result
Barbosa wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Barbosa holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Kareckaite has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barbosa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BarbosaKareckaite
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
66"
Reach
+71"
34
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.7
33.8
50.4
Performance Avg
28.3
40
Quality of Victory
25
55
Momentum Score
40
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
5.5
Style: Pressure
1.0
5.3
Style: Volume
8.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
27
10
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
19Distance32
1Clinch1
0Ground1
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/13 fights
Chin rating based on
3/8 fights
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
40
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
BarbosaKareckaite
Strike Zones
Barbosa
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedKareckaite
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barbosa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kareckaite absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Kareckaite targets the head (79% of attacks) — Barbosa absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barbosa
RND
Kareckaite
0/0R00/0
Barbosa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Anna MelisanoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Melissa GattoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Karine SilvaDecision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
Diana BelbitaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
Kareckaite · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Regina TarinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Nicolle CaliariDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Dione BarbosaDecision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05