UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Women's Flyweight
VS
59%
Barbosa
41%
Kareckaite
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Dione
Dione Barbosa
"The Witch"
9 – 4
5'6"66" reachOrthodox34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 49
Ernesta
Ernesta Kareckaite
"Heavy-Handed"
6 – 2
Well-Rounded27 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 34

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barbosa

This is a genuine toss-up — Barbosa at 59% vs Kareckaite at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Kareckaite throws more volume but Barbosa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Barbosa
Kareckaite
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
66"
Reach
+71"
34
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.0
33.8
44.8
Performance Avg
28.3
35
Quality of Victory
25
55
Momentum Score
40
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.4
48%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
27
10
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
19Distance32
1Clinch1
0Ground1
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/13 fights
Chin rating based on
3/8 fights
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
40
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Barbosa
Kareckaite
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barbosa
Kareckaite
Striking1.2 / 0.7Volume6.5 / 8.7Grappling4.3 / 2.4Wrestling3.0 / 1.7Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure4.1 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Barbosa
Strike Zones
Kareckaite
Barbosa
Attacking
10HEAD10BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD6BODY1LEGS34 absorbed
Kareckaite
Attacking
27HEAD6BODY1LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD10BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barbosa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kareckaite absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Kareckaite targets the head (79% of attacks) — Barbosa absorbs 79% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barbosa
RND
Kareckaite
0/0R00/0

Barbosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0104.5W6.3L5.0W6.7L5.4W2024-052024-072025-042025-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Kareckaite · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0106.2L5.1W6.8L2024-052025-012026-02
WinLossTrend

Barbosa · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Melissa GattoRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Karine SilvaRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
Diana BelbitaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Ernesta KareckaiteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

Kareckaite · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Regina TarinRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Nicolle CaliariRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Dione BarbosaRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Dione Barbosa · Ernesta Kareckaite
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