UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine
Halifax, Canada
4 Oct 2014
Welterweight
VS
53%
Tumenov
47%
Dwyer
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:03
AT
Albert Tumenov
"Einstein"
18 – 4
5'11"73" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 21
MD
Matt Dwyer
9 – 4
Knockout Artist2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'4"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tumenov

This is a genuine toss-up — Tumenov at 53% vs Dwyer at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Dwyer has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Tumenov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Tumenov
Dwyer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+76"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tumenov
Dwyer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
18.5
52.6
Performance Avg
46.0
46
Quality of Victory
60
76
Momentum Score
43
Tumenov
Dwyer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.8
42%
Strike Accuracy
28%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Tumenov
Dwyer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tumenov
Dwyer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Tumenov
Dwyer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Tumenov
Dwyer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tumenov
Dwyer
Striking7.3 / 10.0Volume4.5 / 0.5Grappling1.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.1 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Tumenov
Strike Zones
Dwyer
Tumenov
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Dwyer
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tumenov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dwyer absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tumenov
RND
Dwyer
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Tumenov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W3.8L5.1L2014-022014-102015-102016-052016-10
WinLossTrend

Dwyer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0101.5L5.0W5.5L6.4L2014-102015-022015-072016-01
WinLossTrend

Tumenov · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
Submission
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
L · Sub · R2
Gunnar NelsonRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Lorenz LarkinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R1
Alan JoubanRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Nicholas MusokeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

Dwyer · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
L · Dec · R3
Alan JoubanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
William MacarioRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · KO · R1
Albert TumenovRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

News & Media

Albert Tumenov · Matt Dwyer
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