UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Montreal, Canada
17 Nov 2012
Lightweight
VS
28%
Stout
72%
Makdessi
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SS
Sam Stout
"Hands of Stone"
20 – 12
5'9"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 12
JM
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
18 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 31

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Makdessi

Makdessi is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Makdessi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Stout's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Makdessi has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Stout
Makdessi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stout
Makdessi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.3
30.9
35.3
Performance Avg
42.2
29
Quality of Victory
34
60
Momentum Score
51
Stout
Makdessi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.5
28%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
25
3
Body
2
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
15Distance29
0Clinch2
1Ground0
Stout
Makdessi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stout
Makdessi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/32 fights
Chin rating based on
20/27 fights
Stout
Makdessi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
51
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Stout
Makdessi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
27%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stout
Makdessi
Striking2.0 / 3.8Volume8.0 / 6.9Grappling2.1 / 1.8Wrestling1.5 / 1.2Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.1 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
8.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
Stout
Strike Zones
Makdessi
Stout
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY4LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD2BODY4LEGS31 absorbed
Makdessi
Attacking
25HEAD2BODY4LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY4LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stout targets the head (56% of attacks) — Makdessi absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Makdessi targets the head (81% of attacks) — Stout absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stout
RND
Makdessi
0/0R00/0

Stout · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0104.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W1.5L2.8L1.5L2006-032008-102011-062013-062015-08
WinLossTrend

Makdessi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.0W2.8L5.5L4.5W2.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.8W6.2L5.7L2010-122013-032015-122019-032023-09
WinLossTrend

Stout · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Frankie PerezRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
L · KO · R2
Ross PearsonRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · KO · R1
KJ NoonsRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Cody McKenzieRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
L · Sub · R3
James KrauseRating 4
Submission
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06

Makdessi · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jamie MullarkeyRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · 2022-09
W · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Dec · R3
Jesus PinedoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03

News & Media

Sam Stout · John Makdessi
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