The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2009
Lightweight
VS
22%
Sanchez
78%
Guida
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DS
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
31 – 13
5'10"72" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

Guida is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Sanchez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sanchez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sanchez
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
70"
44
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sanchez
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
44.2
46.0
Performance Avg
40.7
37
Quality of Victory
35
20
Momentum Score
78
Sanchez
Guida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
39%
Strike Accuracy
36%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
10
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
11Distance11
0Clinch1
0Ground2
Sanchez
Guida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sanchez
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
8
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/44 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Sanchez
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
78
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Sanchez
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
32%
39%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
5
13
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sanchez
Guida
Striking4.3 / 2.1Volume6.2 / 5.9Grappling1.5 / 3.7Wrestling1.1 / 2.6Submission0.0 / 2.8Pressure4.0 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Sanchez
Strike Zones
Guida
Sanchez
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY4LEGS14 absorbed
Guida
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY4LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sanchez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (71% of attacks) — Sanchez absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sanchez
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Sanchez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L4.9W1.5L4.5W1.5L1.9L4.5W5.8W6.3L5.1W6.5L2005-042008-032012-022016-112020-09
WinLossTrend

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Sanchez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · KO · R2
Mickey GallRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Craig WhiteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

News & Media

Diego Sanchez · Clay Guida
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