METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2009
Lightweight
VS
22%
Sanchez
78%
Guida
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Diego SanchezwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Clay Guida · The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Sanchez wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Guida is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sanchez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sanchez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SanchezGuida
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sanchez
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
70"
44
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sanchez
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
44.2
46.0
Performance Avg
40.7
37
Quality of Victory
35
20
Momentum Score
78
Sanchez
Guida
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.0
39%
Strike Accuracy
36%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
10
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
11Distance11
0Clinch1
0Ground2
Sanchez
Guida
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sanchez
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
8
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/44 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Sanchez
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
78
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Sanchez
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
32%
39%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
5
13
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sanchez
Guida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
SanchezGuida
Strike Zones
Sanchez
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedGuida
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sanchez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (71% of attacks) — Sanchez absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sanchez
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Sanchez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Sanchez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · KO · R2
Mickey GallRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Craig WhiteRating 4.5Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04