METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2009
Lightweight
VS
24%
Sanchez
76%
Guida
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DS
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
31 – 13
5'10"72" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 40
★ Official Result
Diego SanchezwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Clay Guida · The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Sanchez wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Guida is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Sanchez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
SanchezGuida
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sanchez
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
70"
44
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sanchez
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
39.7
46.0
Performance Avg
40.7
37
Quality of Victory
35
20
Momentum Score
78
Sanchez
Guida
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
4.0
Style: Pressure
4.2
6.2
Style: Volume
5.9
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
10
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
11Distance11
0Clinch1
0Ground2
Sanchez
Guida
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.8
0
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sanchez
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
8
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/44 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Sanchez
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
78
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Sanchez
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
32%
39%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
5
13
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sanchez
Guida
Striking4.3 / 2.1Volume6.2 / 5.9Grappling1.5 / 3.7Wrestling1.1 / 2.6Submission0.0 / 2.8Pressure4.0 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Sanchez
Strike Zones
Guida
Sanchez
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY4LEGS14 absorbed
Guida
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY4LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sanchez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (71% of attacks) — Sanchez absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sanchez
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Sanchez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jake Matthews
Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · R3
Michel Pereira
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael Chiesa
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · KO · R2
Mickey Gall
KO/TKO
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Craig White
Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase Hooper
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim Silva
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa Garcia
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott Holtzman
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio Puelles
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

News & Media

Diego Sanchez · Clay Guida
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