UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira
Jacksonville, USA
13 May 2020
Lightweight
VS
47%
Hernandez
53%
Dober
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dober
This is a genuine toss-up — Hernandez at 47% vs Dober at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dober has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Dober has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hernandez
Dober
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
72"+
Reach
70"
33+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Hernandez
Dober
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
59.9
47.4
Performance Avg
53.2
42
Quality of Victory
50
90
Momentum Score
100
Hernandez
Dober
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
43%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
30
5
Body
5
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
16Distance30
1Clinch7
1Ground0
Hernandez
Dober
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hernandez
Dober
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/27 fights
Chin rating based on
27/44 fights
Hernandez
Dober
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Hernandez
Dober
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
80%
5
KO / TKO Wins
11
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Dober
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
HernandezDober
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedDober
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the head (72% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Dober targets the head (81% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Dober
0/0R00/0
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Dober · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Hernandez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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Dober · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5KO/TKO
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