UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Anaheim, USA
23 Oct 2010
Middleweight
VS
69%
McGee
31%
Jensen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McGee
McGee holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Jensen has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jensen has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: McGee throws more volume but Jensen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
McGee's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jensen has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
McGee
Jensen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
75"
Reach
+76"
41+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
McGee
Jensen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
17.1
40.1
Performance Avg
42.4
36
Quality of Victory
54
50
Momentum Score
59
McGee
Jensen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.1
39%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
0
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance0
0Clinch0
11Ground0
McGee
Jensen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McGee
Jensen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
8/29 fights
McGee
Jensen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
59
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
McGee
Jensen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
27%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McGee
Jensen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
McGeeJensen
Strike Zones
McGee
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedJensen
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McGee targets the head (88% of attacks) — Jensen absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McGee
RND
Jensen
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
McGee · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Jensen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
McGee · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
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Jensen · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 1.5Submission
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L · Sub · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.2Submission
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W · Sub · R1
Jesse ForbesRating 5Submission
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L · KO · R1
Mark MunozRating 1.5KO/TKO
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W · Sub · R1
Steve SteinbeissRating 5Submission
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