METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Two of the best submission grapplers women's MMA has produced, and only one of them wants this on the floor.
The co-main is a puzzle box. Mackenzie Dern is the most decorated jiu-jitsu practitioner in the division's history. Gillian Robertson holds the UFC record for submission wins by a woman with seven. Almost every strawweight title fight in recent memory has been decided by who could avoid the grappling; this one will be decided by who is better at it, which is a far more interesting question and a m…
Dern is on a three-fight run and defending the belt she has spent a career chasing, with a 94 momentum score. Her striking (1.38) remains the obvious hole in a five-round fight. She needs a submission or a dominant control performance — a scrappy decision is where she is most vulnerable.
Robertson has won five straight to earn her first title shot and carries the maximum submission rating in the field. Her 58 chin rating is the weakest number in her profile. She needs to make this a pace fight rather than a technique fight, because on pure grappling craft she is second-best here.
Whether the grappling cancels out and forces a striking fight
Robertson's pressure (7.10) versus Dern's willingness to fight off her back
Dern's low striking output leaving rounds available to be stolen
Robertson's chin in a five-round fight
Back-take scrambles — both women hunt them
Robertson's pace and pressure could bank rounds that Dern never gets back
The ratings gap is 0.5 points — this is functionally a coin flip and the model pick carries almost no signal
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown