UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Detroit, USA
2 Dec 2017
Heavyweight
VS
30%
Overeem
70%
Ngannou
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:42
AO
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
47 – 19
6'4"80" reachOrthodox46 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 18
FN
Francis Ngannou
"The Predator"
17 – 3
Knockout Artist6-fight win streak39 yrsOrthodox83" reach6'4"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ngannou

Ngannou is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Overeem has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Overeem's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Overeem
Ngannou
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
80"
Reach
+83"
46
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Overeem
Ngannou
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
43.0
55.0
Performance Avg
70.4
52
Quality of Victory
60
56
Momentum Score
100
Overeem
Ngannou
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.1
73%
Strike Accuracy
46%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.2
9 KOs
KO Finishes
9 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch3
0Ground1
Overeem
Ngannou
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.9
0.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Overeem
Ngannou
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
96
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
8
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/66 fights
Chin rating based on
14/20 fights
Overeem
Ngannou
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
100
Current form
6-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Overeem
Ngannou
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
83%
9
KO / TKO Wins
9
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Overeem
Ngannou
Striking8.7 / 9.2Volume3.2 / 2.4Grappling0.6 / 0.9Wrestling0.4 / 0.6Submission0.0 / 0.8Pressure7.0 / 8.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.2
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.4
Overeem
Strike Zones
Ngannou
Overeem
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Ngannou
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Overeem targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ngannou absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Ngannou targets the head (67% of attacks) — Overeem absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Overeem
RND
Ngannou
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Overeem · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W4.0L1.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.8W2.6L5.5W4.5W1.9L4.9L6.2W5.0W5.1L5.1W5.7W3.4L2011-122014-122017-032019-042021-02
WinLossTrend

Ngannou · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.2W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.7W5.0W6.6L6.7L5.9W5.0W5.0W6.1W6.2W6.2W2015-122017-012018-112021-032022-01
WinLossTrend

Overeem · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · KO · R5
Augusto SakaiRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09
W · KO · R2
Walt HarrisRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
L · KO · R5
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04

Ngannou · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Ciryl GaneRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01
W · KO · R2
Stipe MiocicRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
W · KO · R1
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Junior Dos SantosRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · KO · R1
Cain VelasquezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02

News & Media

Alistair Overeem · Francis Ngannou
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