UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Welterweight
VS
52%
Jouban
48%
Perry
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AJ
Alan Jouban
"Brahma"
17 – 7
6'0"73" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
MP
Mike Perry
"Platinum"
14 – 8
Striker2-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jouban

This is a genuine toss-up — Jouban at 52% vs Perry at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Jouban has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Jouban's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Perry has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jouban
Perry
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
71"
44
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Jouban
Perry
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
16.4
49.7
Performance Avg
44.4
42
Quality of Victory
43
67
Momentum Score
50
Jouban
Perry
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.8
1.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
51%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
7
4
Body
1
10
Leg
4
RangeRange
24Distance12
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Jouban
Perry
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jouban
Perry
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/24 fights
Chin rating based on
15/22 fights
Jouban
Perry
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
67
50
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Jouban
Perry
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
57%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jouban
Perry
Striking6.2 / 6.7Volume5.2 / 4.4Grappling1.2 / 1.0Wrestling0.8 / 0.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.3 / 5.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Jouban
Strike Zones
Perry
Jouban
Attacking
10HEAD4BODY10LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY4LEGS12 absorbed
Perry
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY4LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD4BODY10LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jouban targets the head (42% of attacks) — Perry absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Perry targets the head (58% of attacks) — Jouban absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jouban
RND
Perry
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Jouban · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.7L5.0W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.6W4.5W3.8L2.2L5.2W5.5L5.0W2014-082015-102017-032020-11
WinLossTrend

Perry · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.5W5.5L5.2W5.0W6.0L6.1L4.5W1.5L4.5W7.0L2.5L5.0W5.6L6.4L2016-082017-092018-112020-062021-04
WinLossTrend

Jouban · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Jared GoodenRating 5
Decision
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
L · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Gunnar NelsonRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03

Perry · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Mickey GallRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06
L · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08

News & Media

Alan Jouban · Mike Perry
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