UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
New York City, USA
15 Nov 2025
Welterweight
VS
43%
Brady
57%
Morales
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:27
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Morales
This is a genuine toss-up — Brady at 43% vs Morales at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Morales has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Morales has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brady's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brady
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+79"
33
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brady
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
76.5
53.7
Performance Avg
70.0
35
Quality of Victory
50
84
Momentum Score
100
Brady
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
3.6
54%
Strike Accuracy
57%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
24
0
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance21
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Brady
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
4.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brady
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/21 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Brady
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
100
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Brady
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
71%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brady
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.1
4.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
BradyMorales
Strike Zones
Brady
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedMorales
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brady targets the head (63% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brady absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brady
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Brady · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Morales · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Brady · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R4
Leon EdwardsRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Morales · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Sean BradyRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07