UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
London, United Kingdom
23 Jul 2022
Light Heavyweight
VS
49%
Craig
51%
Oezdemir
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Paul
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17 – 10
6'3"76" reachOrthodox38 yrs4-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 49
Volkan
Volkan Oezdemir
"No Time"
21 – 8
Striker36 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oezdemir

This is a genuine toss-up — Craig at 49% vs Oezdemir at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Oezdemir has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Craig's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oezdemir has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Craig
Oezdemir
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
76"+
Reach
75"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Craig
Oezdemir
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
50.6
50.4
Performance Avg
50.8
52
Quality of Victory
47
46
Momentum Score
52
Craig
Oezdemir
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.0
47%
Strike Accuracy
48%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
16
4
Body
6
3
Leg
7
RangeRange
12Distance24
0Clinch1
0Ground4
Craig
Oezdemir
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Craig
Oezdemir
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
36
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/27 fights
Chin rating based on
16/29 fights
Craig
Oezdemir
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
52
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Craig
Oezdemir
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
6
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Craig
Oezdemir
Striking4.3 / 6.7Volume0.9 / 3.8Grappling5.3 / 1.7Wrestling3.7 / 1.2Submission6.7 / 1.1Pressure8.4 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Craig
Strike Zones
Oezdemir
Craig
Attacking
5HEAD4BODY3LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD6BODY7LEGS29 absorbed
Oezdemir
Attacking
16HEAD6BODY7LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD4BODY3LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Craig targets the head (42% of attacks) — Oezdemir absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Oezdemir targets the head (55% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Craig
RND
Oezdemir
0/0R00/0

Craig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W2.5L2.4L7.0W5.5L6.8W2.4L5.0W5.0W5.2W6.3W6.2W6.3L2.3L6.2W4.1L4.1L7.2L2.3L2016-122019-032021-062023-112025-09
WinLossTrend

Oezdemir · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.1W5.0W5.0W2.1L3.9L6.5L5.2W4.6W4.4L7.0L5.2W6.7L7.0W5.8W7.4L5.9W2017-022018-102020-072023-092025-11
WinLossTrend

Craig · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo Bellato
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11

Oezdemir · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Alonzo MenifieldRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · KO · R1
Johnny WalkerRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Bogdan GuskovRating 7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Nikita KrylovRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · 2022-10

News & Media

Paul Craig · Volkan Oezdemir
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