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UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Lightweight
VS
54%
Rebecki
46%
Roberts
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:08
Mateusz
Mateusz Rebecki
20 – 5
5'7"66" reachSouthpaw33 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Roosevelt
Roosevelt Roberts
"The Predator"
12 – 6
Well-Rounded4-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'2"
CFR 40
★ Official Result
Mateusz RebeckiwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:08
def. Roosevelt Roberts · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rebecki
→
Actual result
Rebecki wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Rebecki at 54% vs Roberts at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Rebecki has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Rebecki's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Roberts has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
RebeckiRoberts
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Rebecki
Roberts
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'2"
66"
Reach
+73"
33
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Rebecki
Roberts
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
39.9
43.8
Performance Avg
40.8
40
Quality of Victory
38
50
Momentum Score
53
Rebecki
Roberts
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
1.0
51%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
0
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Rebecki
Roberts
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rebecki
Roberts
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/18 fights
Rebecki
Roberts
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
Rebecki
Roberts
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rebecki
Roberts
Striking3.5 / 0.9Volume5.0 / 4.9Grappling3.2 / 5.2Wrestling2.2 / 3.6Submission2.5 / 5.0Pressure5.0 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Rebecki
Strike Zones
Roberts
Rebecki
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Roberts
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rebecki targets the head (70% of attacks) — Roberts absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Roberts targets the head (50% of attacks) — Rebecki absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rebecki
RND
Roberts
0/0R00/0

Rebecki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0104.5W5.8W5.2W5.0L6.1W6.8L6.7L5.5L2023-012023-112024-102025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Roberts · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W4.5W5.7L4.5W5.2W1.9L5.3L2.1L6.7L2018-112019-112021-082024-09
WinLossTrend

Rebecki · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · KO · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

Roberts · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz RebeckiRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
L · KO · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
Upcoming
Kevin Croom
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06

News & Media

Mateusz Rebecki · Roosevelt Roberts
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