METRICS GUIDE

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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Lightweight
VS
56%
Rebecki
44%
Roberts
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:08
Mateusz
Mateusz Rebecki
20 – 5
5'7"66" reachSouthpaw33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Roosevelt
Roosevelt Roberts
"The Predator"
12 – 6
Well-Rounded4-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'2"
CFR 40
★ Official Result
Mateusz RebeckiwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:08
def. Roosevelt Roberts · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rebecki
→
Actual result
Rebecki wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Rebecki at 56% vs Roberts at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Rebecki's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Roberts has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
RebeckiRoberts
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Rebecki
Roberts
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'2"
66"
Reach
+73"
33
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Rebecki
Roberts
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.1
39.9
48.5
Performance Avg
40.8
44
Quality of Victory
38
50
Momentum Score
53
Rebecki
Roberts
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.1
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
5.9
Style: Pressure
4.8
4.3
Style: Volume
4.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
0
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Rebecki
Roberts
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rebecki
Roberts
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/18 fights
Rebecki
Roberts
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
53
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
Rebecki
Roberts
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rebecki
Roberts
Striking5.1 / 0.9Volume4.3 / 4.9Grappling2.6 / 5.2Wrestling1.8 / 3.6Submission2.0 / 5.0Pressure5.9 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Rebecki
Strike Zones
Roberts
Rebecki
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Roberts
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rebecki targets the head (70% of attacks) — Roberts absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Roberts targets the head (50% of attacks) — Rebecki absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rebecki
RND
Roberts
0/0R00/0

Rebecki · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Kyle Prepolec
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08
L · Sub · R3
Grant Dawson
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit Klein
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Chris Duncan
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Myktybek Orolbai
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10

Roberts · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ludovit Klein
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz Rebecki
Submission
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
L · KO · R3
Ignacio Bahamondes
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
Upcoming
Kevin Croom
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
L · Sub · R1
Jim Miller
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06

News & Media

Mateusz Rebecki · Roosevelt Roberts
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