UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Middleweight
VS
46%
Spicely
54%
Chirico
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:14
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chirico
This is a genuine toss-up — Spicely at 46% vs Chirico at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Spicely has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Spicely has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Spicely's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chirico has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Spicely
Chirico
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+74"
39
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Spicely
Chirico
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.3
20.4
43.8
Performance Avg
39.3
54
Quality of Victory
41
52
Momentum Score
25
Spicely
Chirico
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Spicely
Chirico
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Spicely
Chirico
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
36
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/18 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
Spicely
Chirico
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
25
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Spicely
Chirico
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spicely
Chirico
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
SpicelyChirico
Strike Zones
Spicely
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedChirico
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spicely targets the head (100% of attacks) — Chirico absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Chirico targets the head (100% of attacks) — Spicely absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spicely
RND
Chirico
0/0R00/0
Spicely · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Chirico · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Spicely · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Deron WinnRating 5.5Decision
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L · KO · R2
Darren StewartRating 2.8KO/TKO
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L · KO · R2
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The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12
L · Sub · R2
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 2.8Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R1
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 5Submission
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
Chirico · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
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W · KO · R1
Joaquin BuckleyRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 5.9Decision
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Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5Decision
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