METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Middleweight
VS
46%
Spicely
54%
Chirico
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:14
★ Official Result
Eric SpicelywinsSubmissionR1 · 2:14
def. Alessio Di Chirico · UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Chirico
→
Actual result
Spicely wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Spicely at 46% vs Chirico at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Spicely has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Spicely's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chirico has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SpicelyChirico
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Spicely
Chirico
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+74"
39
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Spicely
Chirico
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.3
20.4
43.8
Performance Avg
39.3
54
Quality of Victory
41
52
Momentum Score
25
Spicely
Chirico
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.6
/ 10
5.7
/ 10
7.9
Style: Pressure
4.6
0.6
Style: Volume
4.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Spicely
Chirico
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Spicely
Chirico
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
36
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/18 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
Spicely
Chirico
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
25
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Spicely
Chirico
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spicely
Chirico
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
SpicelyChirico
Strike Zones
Spicely
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedChirico
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spicely targets the head (100% of attacks) — Chirico absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Chirico targets the head (100% of attacks) — Spicely absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spicely
RND
Chirico
0/0R00/0
Spicely · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
Chirico · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovKO/TKO
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