UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi
St. Louis, USA
14 Jan 2018
Lightweight
VS
70%
Frevola
30%
Reyes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Frevola
Frevola is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Reyes throws more volume but Frevola connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Frevola's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Reyes has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Frevola
Reyes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
71"
35+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Frevola
Reyes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.6
16.8
45.8
Performance Avg
49.2
46
Quality of Victory
49
20
Momentum Score
50
Frevola
Reyes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.9
46%
Strike Accuracy
35%
6.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
17
4
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance17
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Frevola
Reyes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Frevola
Reyes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
12
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/17 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Frevola
Reyes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
50
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Frevola
Reyes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
75%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Frevola
Reyes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
FrevolaReyes
Strike Zones
Frevola
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedReyes
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Frevola targets the head (56% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Reyes targets the head (94% of attacks) — Frevola absorbs 94% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Frevola
RND
Reyes
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Frevola · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Reyes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Frevola · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R3
Fares ZiamRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · KO · R1
Benoit Saint DenisRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Reyes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Damir HadzovicRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · KO · R1
James VickRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05