UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
Baltimore, USA
26 Apr 2014
Lightweight
VS
64%
Miller
36%
Medeiros
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miller
Miller holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Medeiros has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Medeiros throws more volume but Miller connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Miller's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Medeiros has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Miller
Medeiros
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+75"
42
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Miller
Medeiros
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
24.4
51.5
Performance Avg
45.4
45
Quality of Victory
47
28
Momentum Score
39
Miller
Medeiros
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
37%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
1
Body
2
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance8
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Miller
Medeiros
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
4.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.4
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Medeiros
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
14
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47/58 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Miller
Medeiros
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
39
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Miller
Medeiros
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
83%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
14
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miller
Medeiros
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.1
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
MillerMedeiros
Strike Zones
Miller
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedMedeiros
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (40% of attacks) — Medeiros absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Medeiros targets the head (78% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miller
RND
Medeiros
0/0R00/0
Miller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Medeiros · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Miller · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Medeiros · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Lando VannataRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · KO · R2
Gregor GillespieRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · KO · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
