UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Montreal, Canada
17 Nov 2012
Middleweight
VS
48%
Carmont
52%
Lawlor
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FC
Francis Carmont
"Limitless"
25 – 12
6'3"78" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
TL
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
10 – 6
Well-Rounded43 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'0"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lawlor

This is a genuine toss-up — Carmont at 48% vs Lawlor at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Lawlor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Carmont has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Carmont
Lawlor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
78"+
Reach
74"
44
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Carmont
Lawlor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.4
19.8
46.6
Performance Avg
48.7
33
Quality of Victory
45
78
Momentum Score
75
Carmont
Lawlor
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.5
50%
Strike Accuracy
36%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
7
6
Body
0
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance9
8Clinch1
0Ground0
Carmont
Lawlor
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Carmont
Lawlor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
70
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/37 fights
Chin rating based on
11/16 fights
Carmont
Lawlor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
75
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Carmont
Lawlor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carmont
Lawlor
Striking1.3 / 4.4Volume6.7 / 3.8Grappling4.3 / 3.5Wrestling3.0 / 2.4Submission3.3 / 3.3Pressure4.3 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Carmont
Strike Zones
Lawlor
Carmont
Attacking
7HEAD6BODY2LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Lawlor
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD6BODY2LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carmont targets the head (47% of attacks) — Lawlor absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Lawlor targets the head (70% of attacks) — Carmont absorbs 70% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carmont
RND
Lawlor
0/0R00/0

Carmont · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L2.8L2011-102012-112014-022014-08
WinLossTrend

Lawlor · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L4.5W2.3L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W5.5L2008-122010-052012-052015-072016-03
WinLossTrend

Carmont · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Thales LeitesRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
CB DollawayRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
L · Dec · R3
Jacare SouzaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02
W · Dec · R3
Constantinos PhilippouRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Lorenz LarkinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · 2013-04

Lawlor · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
W · KO · R2
Gian VillanteRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
W · Sub · R2
Michael KuiperRating 5.2
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Francis CarmontRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05

News & Media

Francis Carmont · Tom Lawlor
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