★ Championship Bout · Flyweight
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Flyweight
VS
55%
Pantoja
45%
Royval
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Alexandre
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
30 – 6
5'5"67" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Brandon
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
17 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide33 yrsSouthpaw68" reach5'9"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pantoja

This is a genuine toss-up — Pantoja at 55% vs Royval at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Royval throws more volume but Pantoja connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Royval has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pantoja
Royval
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'9"
67"
Reach
+68"
36
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pantoja
Royval
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.7
50.3
60.2
Performance Avg
48.2
49
Quality of Victory
42
65
Momentum Score
62
Pantoja
Royval
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.1
49%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
54
2
Body
1
9
Leg
0
RangeRange
34Distance53
0Clinch2
7Ground0
Pantoja
Royval
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
4.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.5
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pantoja
Royval
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
40
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/36 fights
Chin rating based on
13/26 fights
Pantoja
Royval
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
62
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Pantoja
Royval
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
57%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pantoja
Royval
Striking3.0 / 2.6Volume5.0 / 4.6Grappling4.5 / 4.5Wrestling3.1 / 3.1Submission4.3 / 4.3Pressure6.3 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.6
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.5
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.1
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Pantoja
Strike Zones
Royval
Pantoja
Attacking
30HEAD2BODY9LEGS41 landed
Absorbing
54HEAD1BODY0LEGS55 absorbed
Royval
Attacking
54HEAD1BODY0LEGS55 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD2BODY9LEGS41 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pantoja targets the head (73% of attacks) — Royval absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Royval targets the head (98% of attacks) — Pantoja absorbs 98% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pantoja
RND
Royval
0/0R00/0

Pantoja · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.5W5.5L5.4W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.2W5.5L6.2W6.0W6.3W5.4W5.3W5.1W5.1W6.1W3.1L2017-012019-042021-082024-122025-12
WinLossTrend

Royval · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.3W6.1W2.4L4.0L4.5W5.2W5.2W6.8L5.4W6.2W7.1L3.2L2020-052021-082023-042024-102025-12
WinLossTrend

Pantoja · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Joshua VanRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R3
Kai Kara-FranceRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

Royval · Last 5

Upcoming
Lone'er Kavanagh
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · KO · R1
Manel KapeRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Tatsuro TairaRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

News & Media

Alexandre Pantoja · Brandon Royval
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