UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
Philadelphia, USA
6 Aug 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
43%
Hamill
57%
Gustafsson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:34
MH
Matt Hamill
"The Hammer"
12 – 8
6'1"76" reachOrthodox49 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
AG
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded4-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'5"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gustafsson

This is a genuine toss-up — Hamill at 43% vs Gustafsson at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Hamill has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hamill's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gustafsson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Hamill
Gustafsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'5"
76"
Reach
+79"
49
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hamill
Gustafsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
24.8
51.9
Performance Avg
50.3
42
Quality of Victory
47
63
Momentum Score
39
Hamill
Gustafsson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
26
1
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance11
1Clinch5
0Ground13
Hamill
Gustafsson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hamill
Gustafsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Hamill
Gustafsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
39
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Hamill
Gustafsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
70%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hamill
Gustafsson
Striking6.3 / 6.1Volume4.5 / 3.5Grappling1.0 / 2.3Wrestling0.7 / 1.6Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure5.5 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Hamill
Strike Zones
Gustafsson
Hamill
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD2BODY1LEGS29 absorbed
Gustafsson
Attacking
26HEAD2BODY1LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hamill targets the head (75% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (90% of attacks) — Hamill absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hamill
RND
Gustafsson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Hamill · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.0L5.2W5.0W5.8W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L4.5W5.5L2006-062008-042009-122011-082013-10
WinLossTrend

Gustafsson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W7.3L5.1W1.5L5.5L5.1W5.9W4.5L4.5L1.5L2.7L2009-112011-122015-012019-062022-07
WinLossTrend

Hamill · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Thiago SilvaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
W · Dec · R3
Roger HollettRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Alexander GustafssonRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Quinton JacksonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · 2011-05
W · Dec · R3
Tito OrtizRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10

Gustafsson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05

News & Media

Matt Hamill · Alexander Gustafsson
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