METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
Philadelphia, USA
6 Aug 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
43%
Hamill
57%
Gustafsson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:34
★ Official Result
Alexander GustafssonwinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:34
def. Matt Hamill · UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gustafsson
→
Actual result
Gustafsson wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Hamill at 43% vs Gustafsson at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Hamill has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hamill's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gustafsson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HamillGustafsson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hamill
Gustafsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'5"
76"
Reach
+79"
49
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hamill
Gustafsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
24.8
51.9
Performance Avg
50.3
42
Quality of Victory
47
63
Momentum Score
39
Hamill
Gustafsson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
1.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
26
1
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance11
1Clinch5
0Ground13
Hamill
Gustafsson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hamill
Gustafsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Hamill
Gustafsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
39
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Hamill
Gustafsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
70%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hamill
Gustafsson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
HamillGustafsson
Strike Zones
Hamill
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedGustafsson
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hamill targets the head (75% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (90% of attacks) — Hamill absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hamill
RND
Gustafsson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hamill · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Gustafsson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Hamill · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thiago SilvaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
W · Dec · R3
Roger HollettRating 4.5Decision
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Alexander GustafssonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Quinton JacksonRating 5.5Decision
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · 2011-05
W · Dec · R3
Tito OrtizRating 4.5Decision
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10
Gustafsson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05