METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
Anaheim, USA
12 Nov 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
79%
Rosa
21%
Lucas
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Aaron RosawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Matt Lucas · UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rosa
→
Actual result
Rosa wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Rosa is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rosa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Rosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Rosa's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RosaLucas
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Rosa
Lucas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
77"
Reach
43+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
—
Rosa
Lucas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.2
2.7
28.3
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
33
Momentum Score
0
Rosa
Lucas
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
0.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
6
14
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance5
18Clinch1
0Ground0
Rosa
Lucas
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rosa
Lucas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/24 fights
Chin rating based on
1/18 fights
Rosa
Lucas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
0
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rosa
Lucas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rosa
Lucas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
RosaLucas
Strike Zones
Rosa
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedLucas
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rosa targets the body (50% of attacks) — Lucas absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Lucas targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rosa
RND
Lucas
0/0R00/0
Rosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Rosa · Last 3
L · KO · R1
James Te HunaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · 2012-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt LucasRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
L · KO · R3
Joey BeltranRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06
Lucas · Last 1
L · Dec · R3
Aaron RosaRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11