METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
Anaheim, USA
12 Nov 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
79%
Rosa
21%
Lucas
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Aaron RosawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Matt Lucas · UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rosa
→
Actual result
Rosa wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Rosa is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rosa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Risk flags
Rosa's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RosaLucas
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Rosa
Lucas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
77"
Reach
43+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
—
Rosa
Lucas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.2
2.7
28.3
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
33
Momentum Score
0
Rosa
Lucas
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.0
Style: Pressure
0.0
8.7
Style: Volume
0.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
6
14
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance5
18Clinch1
0Ground0
Rosa
Lucas
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rosa
Lucas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/24 fights
Chin rating based on
1/18 fights
Rosa
Lucas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
0
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rosa
Lucas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rosa
Lucas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
RosaLucas
Strike Zones
Rosa
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedLucas
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rosa targets the body (50% of attacks) — Lucas absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Lucas targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rosa
RND
Lucas
0/0R00/0
Rosa · Last 3
L · KO · R1
James Te HunaKO/TKO
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · 2012-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt LucasDecision
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
L · KO · R3
Joey BeltranKO/TKO
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06
Lucas · Last 1
L · Dec · R3
Aaron RosaDecision
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11