UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
Anaheim, USA
12 Nov 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
79%
Rosa
21%
Lucas
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AR
Aaron Rosa
18 – 6
6'4"77" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 10
ML
Matt Lucas
"Luke Duke"
15 – 3
Well-Rounded52 yrs6'1"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rosa

Rosa is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rosa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Rosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Rosa's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rosa
Lucas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
77"
Reach
42+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
—
Rosa
Lucas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.2
2.7
28.3
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
33
Momentum Score
0
Rosa
Lucas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
6
14
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance5
18Clinch1
0Ground0
Rosa
Lucas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rosa
Lucas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/24 fights
Chin rating based on
1/18 fights
Rosa
Lucas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
0
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rosa
Lucas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rosa
Lucas
Striking0.7 / 0.0Volume8.7 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Rosa
Strike Zones
Lucas
Rosa
Attacking
12HEAD14BODY2LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Lucas
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD14BODY2LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rosa targets the body (50% of attacks) — Lucas absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Lucas targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rosa
RND
Lucas
0/0R00/0

Rosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0104.0L4.5W1.5L2011-062011-112012-03
WinLossTrend

Rosa · Last 3

L · KO · R1
James Te HunaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · 2012-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt LucasRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
L · KO · R3
Joey BeltranRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06

Lucas · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Aaron RosaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11

News & Media

Aaron Rosa · Matt Lucas
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