UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Montreal, Canada
25 Apr 2015
Lightweight
VS
28%
Laprise
72%
Barberena
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Barberena
Barberena is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Laprise has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Barberena has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Laprise's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barberena has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Laprise
Barberena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+72"
39
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Laprise
Barberena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.8
43.3
56.0
Performance Avg
43.9
53
Quality of Victory
42
30
Momentum Score
76
Laprise
Barberena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
15
7
Body
12
0
Leg
13
RangeRange
19Distance24
3Clinch16
0Ground0
Laprise
Barberena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Laprise
Barberena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Laprise
Barberena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
76
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Laprise
Barberena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
56%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Laprise
Barberena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
LapriseBarberena
Strike Zones
Laprise
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedBarberena
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Laprise targets the head (68% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Barberena targets the head (38% of attacks) — Laprise absorbs 38% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Laprise
RND
Barberena
0/0R00/0
Laprise · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Barberena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Laprise · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Dhiego LimaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · KO · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · 2018-05
W · KO · R1
Galore BofandoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos · 2017-12
W · KO · R3
Brian CamozziRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker · 2017-07
W · KO · R1
Thibault GoutiRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
Barberena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07