UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas
Las Vegas, USA
23 Mar 2024
Bantamweight
VS
47%
Johns
53%
Gibson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gibson
This is a genuine toss-up — Johns at 47% vs Gibson at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Gibson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Gibson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Johns's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gibson has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Johns
Gibson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
68"
Reach
+71"
32+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Johns
Gibson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
34.7
39.9
41.8
Performance Avg
39.8
33
Quality of Victory
46
10
Momentum Score
25
Johns
Gibson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
40%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
6
3
Body
3
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
9Distance12
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Johns
Gibson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johns
Gibson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/20 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Johns
Gibson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
25
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Johns
Gibson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johns
Gibson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
JohnsGibson
Strike Zones
Johns
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedGibson
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johns targets the head (67% of attacks) — Gibson absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Gibson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Johns absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johns
RND
Gibson
0/0R00/0
Johns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Gibson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Johns · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Daniel MarcosRating 4Submission
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UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Gibson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
AoriqilengRating 2.3KO/TKO
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UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03