METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Vancouver, Canada
14 Sept 2019
Lightweight
VS
29%
Cerrone
71%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:18
★ Official Result
Justin GaethjewinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:18
def. Donald Cerrone · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Gaethje wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Gaethje is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Risk flags
Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CerroneGaethje
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cerrone
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
70"
43
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
67.6
53.0
Performance Avg
65.5
47
Quality of Victory
63
63
Momentum Score
100
Cerrone
Gaethje
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
7.7
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
6.5
3.7
Style: Volume
4.3
10 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
27
4
Body
0
1
Leg
13
RangeRange
17Distance36
0Clinch2
0Ground2
Cerrone
Gaethje
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
2.6
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cerrone
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Cerrone
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Cerrone
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
64%
10
KO / TKO Wins
7
6
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerrone
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
CerroneGaethje
Strike Zones
Cerrone
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the head (71% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (68% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerrone
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerSubmission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
Gaethje · Last 5
W · KO · R4
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievDecision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07