UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Vancouver, Canada
14 Sept 2019
Lightweight
VS
30%
Cerrone
70%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
Gaethje is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Cerrone throws more volume but Gaethje connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cerrone
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
70"
43
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
66.1
53.0
Performance Avg
63.6
47
Quality of Victory
62
63
Momentum Score
100
Cerrone
Gaethje
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.1
49%
Strike Accuracy
62%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
10 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
27
4
Body
0
1
Leg
13
RangeRange
17Distance36
0Clinch2
0Ground2
Cerrone
Gaethje
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerrone
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Cerrone
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Cerrone
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
60%
10
KO / TKO Wins
6
6
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerrone
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
CerroneGaethje
Strike Zones
Cerrone
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the head (71% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (68% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerrone
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07