UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
Winnipeg, Canada
15 Jun 2013
Women's Bantamweight
VS
89%
Davis
11%
Sexton
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Davis
Davis is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Davis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Striking split: Sexton throws more volume but Davis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Davis's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Davis
Sexton
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'3"
68"
Reach
41+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Davis
Sexton
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.5
2.7
39.7
Performance Avg
0.0
28
Quality of Victory
0
45
Momentum Score
0
Davis
Sexton
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.9
47%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
12
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Davis
Sexton
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
3.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Davis
Sexton
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
2/18 fights
Davis
Sexton
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Davis
Sexton
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Davis
Sexton
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
DavisSexton
Strike Zones
Davis
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedSexton
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the head (93% of attacks) — Sexton absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Sexton targets the head (86% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Davis
RND
Sexton
0/0R00/0
Davis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Sexton · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Davis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Julija StoliarenkoRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Pannie KianzadRating 5.5Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Sabina MazoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · 2021-02
L · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 6.2Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Sexton · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
L · Dec · R3
Alexis DavisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06