METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Two of the best submission games in the sport meet, and the deciding number is a chin rating of six.
This is a fight between two men who have spent their careers turning scrambles into finishes, and the metrics agree with each other to an uncomfortable degree. Renato Moicano's submission score is 5.38, Brian Ortega's 5.00. Moicano's grappling is 5.05, Ortega's 4.30. Wrestling: 3.53 against 3.01. Pressure: 6.26 against 7.97. There is no stylistic escape hatch here — both of them want the same figh…
Moicano (21-7-1) submitted Chris Duncan in the second round in April 2026, and before that lost a decision to Beneil Dariush and was submitted by Islam Makhachev in the first round of a title fight. His 5.38 submission score is the highest here; his chin rating of 6.0 is the alarming one.
Ortega (16-5) has gone 1-4 across his last five, losing decisions to Aljamain Sterling in August 2025 and Diego Lopes in September 2024. The exception is a third-round submission of Yair Rodriguez in 58 seconds. A 0.88 finish rate and a 62.1 composite, but over a year of recorded inactivity.
A 6.0 chin rating for Moicano in a fight that will spend time standing
Submission scores of 5.38 and 5.00 — nobody has a grappling advantage worth planning around
Ortega's year-plus of recorded inactivity against a man who won in April
Nearly eight centimetres of reach for Moicano at 182.9cm against 175.3cm
Ortega's 0.88 finish rate against Moicano's 0.61 — who is likelier to end it if the chance comes
Moicano is the more active and the bigger man, and his April submission win was the cleanest recent performance by either
Ortega's layoff is long enough that the 62.1 composite may be describing a fighter who no longer exists
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown